Let’s talk baseball | Ott Observations
Part of the beauty of sports is they give us a break from all the stresses of daily life.
And in this world of increased polarization, one thing virtually all of us have in common is that we are St. Louis Cardinals baseball fans. So, let’s take a break from politics and culture wars and talk baseball – especially because this summer of discontent has given us a lot to talk about.
It’s my opinion the Cardinals’ failed season is rooted in some flawed philosophies. The first sign was the deterioration of Matt Carpenter. Baseball hitting philosophy has changed to where only extra base hits matter; singles do not. Accordingly, Carpenter went from a high contact, level swing, high average hitter to a power pull hitter who couldn’t hit the ball to the opposite field even if no defenders were there.
We ended up getting a few more home runs but a ton of strikeouts and a terrible batting average.
The more ominous sign of trouble was the firing of Mike Shildt for “philosophical differences” which the Cardinals have never explained.
Shildt starting coaching for the Cardinals minor league teams in 2004, ironically based on a recommendation by John Mozeliak. For the next 13 years, he coached and managed future Cardinals, winning three minor league championships and a manager of the year title. He taught “The Cardinal Way” through all levels of the minor league system.
He joined the Cardinals in 2017 and became manager in 2018 when they fired Mike Matheny. The next year, the Cardinals made the playoffs for the first time in four years, and Shildt won MLB Manager of the Year.
In 2021, Shildt benched Paul DeJong, another new hitting philosophy protégé, and proceeded to win 17 straight games with a back-up shortstop named Edmundo Sosa. His reward? The Cardinals fired him less than a month after the season ended.
I suspect Shildt confronted what I will call the “finance” philosophy. The Cardinals decided they don’t have the stomach for the free agent market. Their plan is to develop prospects. Shildt probably told them they would never win a championship with DeJong and that they needed to sign one of the three all-star shortstops on the free agent market.
So much for honest advice from your manager.
Their “baseball” philosophy change is more troubling and more puzzling. Baseball analytics have now been embraced, emphasizing hit ball exit speeds, extra base hits, and pitchers getting strikeouts.
As a lifelong fan, I’ve always marveled at how baseball has never needed to change. The bases are still 90 feet apart and the pitcher is still 60 feet, 6 inches from home plate.
I don’t believe how to play winning baseball has changed, either. We now have boring baseball, with too many frustrating strikeouts waiting for a home run and days we don’t score because a decent pitcher doesn’t give up many fat pitches to drive.
In 1985, Tommy Herr drove in 110 runs with only eight homers. How? Vince Coleman would get on base and steal second. Willie McGee would hit a ground ball to second to move Coleman to third. And Herr would hit a ground ball or sacrifice fly to drive Coleman in.
No hits, one run on the scorecard.
The Cardinals are 11-26 in one-run games this year. They used to make the other team lose one-run games.
In 1982, the Cardinals acquired Ozzie Smith. He was a great field, no hit shortstop. Manager Whitey Herzog started a standing bet where Ozzie won if he got a hit or a groundball and Whitey won if he had a fly out or strikeout. Ozzie won about $300 and ended up in the Hall of Fame.
The Cardinals now talk about exit velocity of a ball off a bat. A weak hump-back liner to the opposite field still drives in a runner with two outs. A soft ground ball away from a defensive shift is still a hit.
Stealing bases, bunting and hit-and-runs still put pressure on defenses. Good pitchers still end up constantly harassed and losing their concentration.
The Cardinals now talk about swing-and-miss pitching. So now we see hard throwers, too many walks and arm troubles.
Major league hitters can hit 100 miles per hour fastballs if they see it every pitch. Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame based on a splitfinger pitch that barely topped 80 mph. John Tudor won 20 games mixing a changeup with a fastball that rarely topped 90 mph.
Knowledgeable baseball fans know it as pitching, not throwing.
The problem with the Cardinals finance philosophy is sometimes your prospects aren’t very good. The Cardinals have only had 26 percent quality starts in their games. A quality start is giving up three runs in six innings. That’s a 4.50 ERA.
Their bullpen has only held leads 22 out of 43 games. Winning teams have a lead after six innings and keep it with a shut-down bullpen.
If you don’t have the talent in your system, you need to buy it. We’ll see if the Cardinals can change their philosophy.
Cardinals manager Ollie Marmol recently said he loves our batting lineup when it is healthy. I see a lineup that scores against mediocre pitching but can’t against good pitching because they don’t play the small ball that won World Series for the ’82, ’06 and ’11 Cardinals, the ’15 Kansas City Royals, and the ’10, ’12, and ’14 San Francisco Giants.
You only see good pitching in the playoffs, which may be why the Cardinals haven’t won a playoff game in forever.
The Cardinals’ history and their DNA refute the new baseball philosophy. Their finance philosophy fails when your prospects fail.
Maybe Shildt was trying to remind them of that.